Japan’s export engine showed fresh resilience in November, with shipments to the US rising for the first time since President Donald Trump announced baseline tariffs in early April.
The improvement helped drive the strongest overall export growth since February, offering evidence that global trade flows are adapting faster than expected to a more protectionist environment.
The data also arrive at a sensitive moment for policymakers, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s view that tariff-related uncertainty has eased.
That assessment is being closely watched ahead of a widely anticipated interest rate hike later this week.
The figures highlight a shifting balance in Japan’s trade relationships, with gains in the US and Europe offsetting weaker demand from China.
Markets and officials are now parsing the details for clues on how tariffs, pricing strategies, and diplomatic frictions are reshaping trade patterns.
US shipments regain momentum
Exports to the US provided a key boost to November’s trade performance.
Shipments to America increased in both value and volume, marking a clear turnaround after months of disruption following the introduction of new tariffs earlier in the year.
This rebound played a central role in lifting Japan’s total exports by 6.1% from a year earlier, according to data released by the Finance Ministry on Wednesday.
The US recovery helped push overall export growth to its fastest pace since February.
It also supported the view that companies have adjusted supply chains and pricing strategies after the initial shock of higher duties.
Japan’s trade surplus with the US reached ¥739.8 billion, up 11.3% from a year earlier, and has remained in surplus since Trump began his second term in January.
Cars and pricing pressure
Automobiles remained a focal point in Japan’s trade with the US.
Exports of cars and related parts rose in November after Washington reduced tariffs on these products to 15% from more than 25% in mid-September, a rate that now applies to many other goods as well.
The value of car shipments to the US increased 1.5%, while the number of units exported jumped by 7.7%.
This gap suggests that Japanese automakers are continuing to protect market share through price adjustments.
At the same time, the average unit price of cars shipped to the US climbed back above ¥4 million for the first time since April, indicating a partial recalibration as trade conditions evolve.
China demand softens
While trade with the US improved, exports to China fell 2.4% in November.
The decline was driven by weaker shipments of chip-making machinery and non-ferrous metals.
The data come amid an ongoing diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, sparked by comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on a hypothetical Taiwan contingency.
China has issued warnings against travel to Japan and taken other steps since early November.
Even so, China remains Japan’s largest trading partner.
The latest figures show the trade balance with China is on track to reach a record annual deficit, underlining Japan’s continued reliance on Chinese demand.
Europe and sectors in focus
Beyond the US, exports to the European Union jumped 19.6% in November, adding further support to the headline growth figure.
Semiconductor parts and medical goods led overall export gains, helping shipments beat economist forecasts.
On the import side, purchases rose 1.3%, slightly below expectations.
Japan’s overall trade balance was positive on an unadjusted basis, with a ¥322.3 billion surplus.
Separate data from China earlier in the week showed further weakness in investment and the slowest retail sales growth since the Covid-era crash, factors that may continue to weigh on bilateral trade.
The post Japan exports rebound as US shipments recover despite tariffs appeared first on Invezz