Markets are looking to kick off the year with a volatile mix of tech, geopolitics, speculative finance, and protectionism.
Nvidia is racing to meet surging Chinese demand for its H200 AI chips amid shifting export politics, while Trump Media leans into crypto with a controversial shareholder token.
India tightens trade defenses to shield steel inputs, and Bitcoin coils near a critical breakout level, setting the stage for sharp moves across equities, commodities, and digital assets.
Nvidia scrambles for more H200s as China orders explode
Chinese tech giants placed orders for over 2 million Nvidia H200 AI chips for 2026, dwarfing Nvidia’s 700,000-unit stockpile, including H200 superchips.
The Hopper powerhouse, packing 141GB HBM3e memory and 6x the punch of the blocked H20, is priced at $27,000 each, with first shipments eyed before the mid-February Lunar New Year.
Nvidia tapped TSMC to ramp 4nm production starting Q2 2026, navigating Trump’s export greenlight amid Beijing’s import review.
Major internet firms like Alibaba see it as a game-changer over grey-market rip-offs, potentially juicing Nvidia’s China revenue despite global Blackwell priorities.
Trump media eyes crypto play with shareholder token drop
Trump Media announced a digital token airdrop to DJT shareholders, one token per share, via Crypto.com’s Cronos blockchain, lifting the stock 4.7% on New Year’s Eve.
Token holders get periodic rewards through Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth Predict, but the tokens won’t be transferable or represent ownership stakes.
The move deepens Trump’s crypto footprint after $TRUMP meme coins crashed 93% and World Liberty Financial’s $WLFI collapsed 69% from highs.
CEO Devin Nunes pitched it as leveraging “improving regulatory clarity” under Trump’s pro-crypto administration.
Full details roll out in 2026, but skeptics eye it as another speculative asset designed to boost investor sentiment while the company bleeds cash.
India shields steel makers with met coke duties
India imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of $60.87–$130.66 per tonne on low-ash metallurgical coke imports from Australia, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia for six months, targeting undercutting by 15–25%.
China faces the steepest tariff at $130.66/tonne, signaling New Delhi’s protectionist tilt as steelmakers face input cost headwinds.
The move follows quantitative import caps already limiting purchases to 1.4 million tonnes per half-year, yet demand exceeds 3 million tonnes.
Steel producers grumble that the restrictions raise costs and margin pressure; coke represents 35–40% of steel production expenses.
Domestic manufacturers, backed by India’s Metallurgical Coke Manufacturers Association, cheered the shield, though steelmakers and traders worry about knock-on inflationary effects as supply tightens.
Bitcoin eyes $95K breakout
Bitcoin has coiled into a textbook symmetrical triangle near $87,000, with converging trendlines compressing volatility as year-end approaches.
The pattern sits between support at $86,700–$87,000 and resistance at $90,200, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout on volume.
A break above the upper trendline could trigger a measured move targeting $95,000, potentially unlocking momentum toward $100,000 as Bitcoin heads into 2026.
However, institutional sentiment diverges sharply; Fidelity warns of 2026 “consolidation,” while Grayscale touts an “institutional era” driving higher.
Mixed momentum signals cloud the outlook: RSI sits overbought, suggesting short-term pullbacks, yet Aroon Up hit 100% and MACD crossed above zero, signaling strong buying.
ETF outflows of $782 million underscore institutional caution despite retail accumulation.
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