Wall Street’s biggest firms view 2026 as a year where selective themes will matter more than broad market rallies.
Rather than betting on another 17% S&P 500 gain, as in 2025, strategists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America are pointing toward five specific predictions that could determine which investors win and which stumble.
Here’s what the major research desks are telling clients to watch in 2026.
5 Wall Street predictions for 2026
1. AI capital spending will hit $527 billion, but…
Goldman Sachs projects that artificial intelligence capital spending will surge to $527 billion in 2026, up from $465 billion at the start of 2025.
That’s extraordinary growth, but here’s the critical caveat: Bank of America’s research team warns of a potential “air pocket” in 2026, where heavy investment continues but expected profits haven’t yet materialised.
Hyperscalers have issued $121 billion in debt in 2025 alone, and Bank of America projects another $100 billion in borrowing for 2026.
That mounting debt becomes risky if revenue growth doesn’t follow capex growth.
The real winners in 2026 will be companies that can prove AI monetisation, not just capex scale.
Goldman flags semiconductors, cloud providers, and enterprise software firms as the chief beneficiaries if adoption accelerates as expected.
2. Sector rotation favours financials, industrials, and healthcare over tech
After mega-cap technology stocks dominated 2025, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect leadership to broaden significantly in 2026.
Both firms flag financials, industrials, and healthcare as overweight ideas as earnings catch up with valuations and the market reprices tech multiples.
This rotation matters because it could mean single-digit returns for the Magnificent Seven while other parts of the market deliver double-digit gains.
For income investors, financials offer attractive yields and rising net interest margins if the Fed’s rate-cut cycle stabilises.
For growth investors, industrials benefit from infrastructure spending and AI capex acceleration.
Bank of America cautions that this rotation isn’t guaranteed; if AI monetisation re-accelerates suddenly, tech could reclaim leadership just as quickly.
3. Gold soars to $4,900; oil stays weak
Goldman Sachs’ commodities team has made one of 2026’s boldest calls: gold to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while oil averages just $56 per barrel.
The gold thesis rests on structural central bank buying (Goldman expects 70 tonnes per month) and eventual Fed rate cuts driving exchange-traded fund demand.
J.P. Morgan goes even further, seeing gold at roughly $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026.
Oil faces the opposite headwind. A massive global liquefied natural gas supply wave, combined with OPEC’s reluctance to cut output aggressively, will leave the market oversupplied unless major geopolitical shocks disrupt supply.
Goldman sees Brent crude at $56, versus consensus views closer to $62.
This divergence: gold up sharply, oil down, reflects the two major macro risks facing 2026: inflation uncertainty and energy transition dynamics.
4. The Fed’s rate path will determine which assets outperform
Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan expect the Fed’s gradual rate-cutting path to drive yields lower in the first half of 2026, then stabilise as inflation data stabilises.
Both firms see yields rangebound in a 3.5% to 4.5% range rather than a dramatic collapse.
This matters because it shapes returns across equities, bonds, and commodities simultaneously.
Lower real rates (nominal rates minus inflation), combined with geopolitical uncertainty, create classic conditions for gold demand.
Fixed-income teams project higher realised volatility and potential M&A windows opening as deal flow normalises.
For equity investors, the absence of a sharp rate cut or spike creates a Goldilocks scenario: moderate upside, but also moderate downside risk if earnings disappoint.
5. S&P 500 targets reveal deep disagreement on valuation risk
J.P. Morgan sees the S&P 500 at 7,500 by year-end 2026, assuming 13-15% earnings growth and two Fed rate cuts.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson targets 7,800, anchored on similar earnings assumptions.
But Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian offers just 4% upside from current levels, citing valuation risk and the need for a market “reset” if earnings disappoint.
The gap between Morgan Stanley’s bull case and BofA’s bear case reveals genuine disagreement about whether 2026 delivers earnings growth without multiple compression.
That uncertainty alone suggests volatility ahead, exactly what traders and investors should prepare for as 2026 unfolds.
The critical question: will companies earn their way to higher valuations, or will the market demand cheaper multiples before pushing higher?
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