Russia has completed the 2026 winter-crop sowing campaign, but the planting area continues to shrink, according to the latest SovEcon report.
Winter wheat planting, as of mid-December, totalled 16.1 million hectares, the agricultural consultancy said.
The figure represented a slight decrease from the 16.2 million hectares planted a year prior and is down more significantly from the 16.9 million hectares planted two years ago.
Russia’s winter wheat area reached its highest point in December 2021, covering 17.8 million hectares.
However, this expansive trend reversed shortly thereafter.
The subsequent decline in area was primarily a reaction to decreased profitability in grain farming.
This weaker financial outlook was largely a consequence of the government’s decision to implement export taxes on wheat, SovEcon said.
Downward trend in planting area
SovEcon expects a continued downward trend in the planting area dedicated to spring wheat cultivation.
The firm is forecasting that the planted area for next year will be approximately 10.7 million hectares.
This figure represents a noticeable contraction when viewed against the recent historical data.
In the immediate prior season, the spring wheat area stood at 11.1 million hectares, and the season before that saw a significantly larger area of 12.3 million hectares.
This consistent reduction, from 12.3 million to 11.1 million and now a forecasted 10.7 million hectares, suggests a structural shift or response to prevailing market and agricultural conditions that are disincentivising the cultivation of spring wheat among producers.
Factors contributing to this decline could include changing weather patterns impacting planting success, shifts in profitability relative to competing crops, or governmental agricultural policy adjustments.
Financial deterioration and competitor gains
The profitability of Russia’s grain sector continues to decline.
SovEcon estimates indicate that pre-tax income for grain producers reached 69 billion rubles between January and September 2025, a significant drop from 93 billion rubles in the same period a year prior, and substantially lower than the 181 billion rubles recorded in 2021 (USDRUB = 80).
This deterioration in farmers’ financial standing began following the implementation of export taxes in 2021.
Conversely, several of Russia’s competitors have increased their wheat acreage.
For instance, Ukraine’s winter wheat area is estimated by its Ministry of Economy to be 4.7 million hectares as of mid-December.
This represents a five-year high, up from 4.4 million hectares the previous year.
The French Agriculture Ministry has reported that the winter wheat area is at a three-year high of 4.8 million hectares, an increase from the 4.7 million hectares recorded last year.
2026 outlook
Adverse weather conditions disrupted Russia’s 2026 winter-crop sowing campaign.
Heavy rains significantly slowed planting throughout the season, leading to a peak year-on-year lag of 0.5 million hectares.
The return to near-normal precipitation levels in European Russia starting in October facilitated an acceleration of planting activity.
For 2026, SovEcon anticipates a reduction in Russia’s total wheat area, predicting a drop to 26.3 million hectares from 26.9 million hectares the previous year.
Concurrently, average yields are expected to slightly decrease, easing from 3.3 to 3.2 metric tons per hectare.
The projected wheat harvest for 2026 is anticipated to be 83.8 million metric tons, marking a decline from this year’s output of 88.8 million metric tons.
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