Lower-income families in the UK could wait more than a century to see their living standards double if current trends persist, according to new research that highlights the scale of income stagnation and its social consequences.
The Resolution Foundation said it would take around 137 years for working-age households in the poorest half of the population to double their disposable incomes at the current pace of growth, warning that the prolonged slowdown risks deepening economic insecurity and political volatility.
“A two-decade stagnation in disposable incomes has created a mood of unease across the country,” the think tank said, cautioning that the trend could lead to “further political disruption” unless pay growth accelerates.
From rapid progress to prolonged slowdown
The research shows a stark contrast between the late 20th century and the years since the mid-2000s.
Between the mid-1960s and 2005, disposable incomes for working-age families in the lower half of the income distribution doubled, growing by an average of 1.8% a year after inflation.
In the final decade of that period, income growth accelerated to around 4% annually, putting households on track to double their living standards within less than two decades.
But that momentum faded after 2005.
Since then, disposable incomes for lower-income families—measured after taxes and housing costs—have grown by just 0.5% a year.
“If progress continues to crawl in the way it has since the mid-2000s, a further doubling would take over 130 years,” the Resolution Foundation said.
‘Unsung Britain’ under pressure
The think tank describes 13 million working-age households below the national median income as “unsung Britain”, highlighting their growing contribution to the workforce and unpaid care despite limited financial rewards.
Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said the findings challenged assumptions about the link between work and prosperity.
“The figures show that work is not a guaranteed route out of poverty,” she said.
“The 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country are widely courted by politicians. But despite working harder, they have seen their disposable incomes stagnate, as they grapple with shrinking pay rises, higher costs and a growing struggle with their health and care needs.”
Nearly one in three working-age adults in lower-income families has a disability, compared with fewer than one in five in better-off households.
Around 1 million people in this group provide at least 35 hours of unpaid care each week to adult relatives or friends.
Pay, benefits and tax pressures
The Resolution Foundation said the slowdown in incomes since 2005 has been driven largely by weaker wage growth and cuts to working-age benefits.
Average gross annual earnings for someone in a lower-income family have risen by £7,700 since the mid-1990s to about £18,000 today, but nearly three-quarters of that increase occurred before 2005.
Taxes account for a smaller share of poorer households’ budgets than for wealthier families—12% compared with 31%.
However, council tax remains a significant burden, with the poorest households spending four times as much of their income on the levy as the richest.
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